Doorstep in Basra

22 December 2005

Tony Blair flew into Basra for a surprise Christmas visit to UK troops in Iraq. He then answered questions from journalists.

Question and answer session

Question:

Prime Minister, how optimistic are you about what you call - a very ugly word - Iraqi-isation and explain to us what you meant when you said that eventually you hoped that we can draw down our own capability?

Prime Minister:

First of all on the Iraqi-isation, I think it is interesting talking to the troops here who are working the whole time with the Army and the police, actually they have got a very high regard for the Army and those working with the police I think are finding them good to work with as well, and that is a very hopeful sign because obviously the whole purpose is to build up the Iraqi capability to do the Armed Forces' work and the police so that we can then draw down our own forces. That is the whole purpose of the strategy. And the politics has got to, the political process can only be buttressed by a strong security aspect to it, increasingly taken over by the Iraqis themselves. So I think that is good.

Now obviously there is a lot to do. I think most of us recognise that the Army has built a quicker capability than the police. That is why it is very important that we get a good, strong unity government out of the Iraqi elections, so that they can then build the police and the Army to their full capability. But I think the troops here that I talked to, at least, were rather more upbeat about the Iraqi capability than I expected in a way.

Question:

General Dutton talked about 6 months for a withdrawal of some UK forces being a realistic timetable. What do you think of that?

Prime Minister:

The trouble with talking about timetables is that it all depends on the mission being properly fulfilled and that is to have the political process working and the Iraqi capability, in terms of security in their Army and in the Police Service, being built up, but if everything goes to plan then it is our strategy. We want to draw down our own forces. We don't want to keep people here longer than we need to but I think again they will say, talking to Iraqis, that whatever difficulties there are from time to time, the Iraqis themselves know that it is important that our troops stay and do the job.

Question:

Six months?

Prime Minister:

Well, as I say, the General is probably in a better position to give you a time-line than me on that, but I am sure he would say, and I would say, it is not an arbitrary time. You know you don't set an arbitrary timetable but you assess when the job is going to be done, but to be fair you have now got a situation where you have got roundabout I think 100,000 troops with capability, which is quite a sizeable force. Now you have got about the same numbers in the police but I think it is more variable there, the capability. So this is a completely different situation from the situation a year ago. And the other interesting thing that the troops said was that during - some of them obviously have been here two or three times - and those that were here in the January election said that they thought that these December elections were a lot more run by the Iraqis themselves with their own forces doing a lot of the security and so on. So, you know, it is happening.

Question:

Is it the case, Prime Minister, that the mission is more likely to be completed in the Southern sector, in the British zone, than it is in the American zone. Is there likely to be any inhibition on the return of British troops due to the situation in the American zone?

Prime Minister:

No, I think that the real key around Baghdad, and in the north of the country, is whether you get a real sense that all parts of the community are participating in the Government. This is why this concept of a unity government is so important and if every part of the community feels that they have got a stake in the democratic system then that will also have a big impact on the security. Now you know I was just being told earlier today that for example, I think it is in the Anbar Province, there were just a few thousand people voted in January, almost half a million voted this time round. So the thing is changing. Now if therefore people from those Sunni areas are participating in the election, you have got a far better chance then of the security situation being turned around.

Question:

Won't you finish with a country that is more divided, Prime Minister?

Prime Minister:

Look, the divisions have always been there, and this is a country that was completely wrecked, with no political rights, with 60% of the population living on food aid, with 4 million of its citizens in exile. Yes, these religious divisions exist, but as I think it was a BBC poll showed that 70% of Iraqis want a unified Iraq, and I think that the real issue is whether they can find a way to get the unified government they obviously all want. And of course there will be people who will be causing trouble all the way through this process, but 10 million people came out and voted, and they voted because democracy is what they want running their country.

Question:

Sir Jeremy Greenstock says you are being far too optimistic and the British troops are going to be here for five years in large numbers.

Prime Minister:

Well I don't know about the first thing. In respect of the second, look whenever people talk about this and they say troops remaining, it depends in what number, and how. We still have troops in Bosnia today, but it is not the same as it was ten years ago. Now I am not saying we will have or we won't have, all I am saying is you have to judge that as you go. But I don't know how much, I can get you the percentages of the missions that are now undertaken with the Iraqis in the lead, but it is a very high number. Did they say 75%?

Prime Minister's Official Spokesman:

It is 75% by next summer in some areas.

Prime Minister:

So that is a big, big change, and already these guys, they were just saying to me now, some of the soldiers, that in this election here in Basra they were really there in support, but not in the lead, in providing security.

Question:

Prime Minister, you were saying yesterday that you felt more and more confident that you were doing the right thing. Do you think that that applies to Iraq, despite nearly 100 British soldiers dead, more than 2,000 American soldiers dead, the continuing insurgency and instability in the country?

Prime Minister:

Well I think we should always ask ourselves, would it be better if Iraq was still under Saddam Hussein? Answer - no. That 10 million came out and voted shows the type of system they want. But also this global terrorism, if it is defeated here, that is a big defeat for it everywhere. The whole case of global terrorism, this terrorism based on a perversion of Islam, is that the purpose of the Americans, and the British, and the West is to suppress Muslim people, is to take the Iraqi oil, is to occupy the country. It is perfectly obvious that in fact what we are trying to do is what the Iraqi people want. And so I have always thought that succeeding here is a big part of winning that battle. But it is too early to tell and there are still huge challenges and difficulties, and nobody under-estimates that at all, it would be absurd to say anything else. But there is something extraordinary about a 70% turnout, a higher turnout than in either the UK or America for that matter, or in most countries. Now people are coming out and voting, and showing clearly by voting what they want for their country.

Question:

Would you like the eventual parliament to look at provisions within the constitution that allow the political process to allow states within a state to develop? For instance in this area, how dangerous do you think it is for the establishment of some pro-Iranian state within a state if that is what happens, if that is how people vote, if that is how the political process ends up?

Prime Minister:

The one thing that is very clear from talking to particularly some of the people who are the political operators here who work with us and who are Iraqis is that that is not what people in Iraq want. Obviously there are large numbers of Shia here and Iran is a Shia country, but actually the people here want to run their own country. And I was just talking to some of the soldiers that were working down at the dock, at Um Qazar, which I visited a couple of years ago and which was at that time virtually deserted, and they say it is incredibly busy now, and you have got ships loading and unloading, a busy port. This country, you see, is potentially a wealthy country and I don't think its people will think it very sensible to divide the country. Why? They are far better off unified, and all they need is a proper functioning democracy, with a proper system of government and the rule of law, and the country will take off. It has got oil reserves, it has got very, very able people, and because 4 million people were exiled in the years of Saddam, you have got people who can come back into the country and bring an enormous amount of wealth and expertise, but obviously it all depends on getting the security situation right. And I always say to people about this when they say well many people have died in the last couple of years, but in the last couple of years we have been here with a UN mandate, with full UN authority, with the consent of the Iraqi Government, elected for the first time, and if people have died it is because terrorists and people who want to wreck the democratic process are trying to kill the innocent. We are trying to stop that happening. But if we were to walk away and let them get on with it, how would that be a solution?

Question:

You must feel relieved that you are nearer your goal then in terms of delivering democracy as a gift to the Iraqi people?

Prime Minister:

We are obviously nearer it, but there are big challenges and I am not shrinking away from that. The thing that is interesting though is that all those who said well you don't understand these people, they want a different system, what they really want is a strong dictator. Give them the chance, people anywhere, give them the chance they want to vote, and that is for a very sensible reason, that democracy is a better system than dictatorship. And of course of the 18 provinces in Iraq, 90% of everything that happens in four provinces, for another 14 there are people I suspect getting on with their lives and already seeing enormous improvements, which is why I think people are rather surprised when they see the poll figures in Iraq showing that most people are optimistic about the future, but that is because I think they can see the democratic process there and they can see the possibility. Now our job is to make that possibility happen and we have got to do that working with the allies, with the Iraqi Government and with the United Nations as well.