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Afghanistan - half empty or half full?

The three reports published last week by the Afghan Study Group, Oxfam and the Atlantic Council  represent sustained analysis and thoughtful prescription - a great deal of it highly resonant of the Prime Minister's statement to the House of Commons in December 

I see them as a necessary contribution to a debate that must not be shirked: the Afghan effort is costing lives and money and deserves intense discussion. It cannot be said often enough that Afghanistan is an immensely poor country - 174th out of 178 in the World Development Index - with very basic systems of government. If that were not enough it is plagued by the triple whammy of civil strife, highly profitable opium production and an insurgent force ('Taleban') with deep links to al qaeda.

The Oxfam report calls for development and security to be seen as two sides of the same coin; for greater effort in rural areas; for comprehensive and long term international commitment; for Afghan ownership and for greater donor effectiveness. These are all good points and consistent with UK aims. I was also struck by the Afghan Study Group's emphasis on achieving greater consistency in the work of Provincial Reconstruction Teams, on shared purpose across the Pakistan border, and rule of law. Again - good points. There are two vital questions: whether we have an interest in being in Afghanistan to support the government's efforts, and whether we are making a difference. Most people would probably accept the former; debate is rightly on the latter. but the evidence - from development to security to governance - is that a) without the international community (over 30 nations are there) things would be much worse, and b)there is defnite progress from refugees returning to girls in school to rural development councils that engage local people and military success against Taleban forces unable to make headway in conventional fighting.

But at the same time as progress there is insecurity - for Afghans and for foreign military and diplomatic personnel (I recently spoke to my Norwegian opposite number Jonas Store whose reaction to the bombing at the Serena Hotel in Kabul, where unfortunately a journalist travelling with him was killed, was to announce greater Norwegian effort) - and that insecurity is real. Checking that insecurity is a shared responsibility of the Kabul authorities and the international community. I will have more to say about this during the week.

Council for Assisting Refugee Academics

2008 is the 75th anniversary of CARA, founded in 1933 by William Beveridge Cara and its predecessors have helped about 9000 lecturers and researchers - including 18 Nobel Prize winners and 150 Fellors of the British Academy and Royal Society. I am happy to send them anniverary good wishes. Information is at www.academic-refugees.org <http://www.academic-refugees.org>

FCO Moving Forward

Today I meet 150 or so of the FCO's partners across business and the voluntary sector to discuss the FCO's forward plan. The aim is clear: more effective foreign policy, through greater clarity about the role of the FCO and greater engagement with civil society. Details are in my Written Statement to Parliament. I gather the Canadian and French governments are undertaking similar exercises.

posted by David Miliband on 04 Feb 08 with 0 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Afghanistan

The reports of the death of the Deputy Governor of Helmand Province today, Haji Pir Mohammed, in a bombing at a mosque is a horrific reminder of the difficulties we face in Afghanistan. Two years on from the Afghan Compact signed here in London which set the framework for the international communities' help and support for the Afghan Government, three reports in recent days (by the Afghan Study Group, Oxfam and the Atlantic Council) have assessed the current state of play. The common message from all three is that we need greater coordination: between the UN, NATO and the EU, between civilian reconstruction and the armed forces, between the Afghan Government and the international community. I agree. I saw for myself when I went to Afghanistan that the sheer scale of the task is enormous and we will succeed only if we have better coordination in all those areas. The need for better coordination was central to the discussions the Prime Minister and I had with President Karzai and UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. That is why we have backed the idea of a UN Special representative who can bring the international community's effort together.

Afghanistan is a poor country ripped apart by 30 years of conflict. Up to three quarters of the population are illiterate. Constant pressures mean that the capacity of the central Government is weak. There is an insurgency fueled by criminality and drugs. Over 100 countries are committed to reverse the devastation to its society and economy of 30 years of brutal conflict. Real progress has been made and the Prime Minister set out the framework for further progress over the long term in a statement to Parliament on 12 December last year. This involves increasing the capacity and effectiveness of the Afghan Security Forces and the Afghan Government; tackling the insurgency with a politically led counter insurgency policy that involves reconciliation with those prepared to renounce violence, and dealing with the drugs industry through improved rule of law and alternative livelihoods. We all agree that there is room for better co-ordination of the international effort - that is why it is so important that the UN and the Afghan Government move as quickly as possible to find someone suitable to fulfill this key role.

Sayed Pervez Kambaksh

The media in London are following closely the case of Sayed Pervez Kambaksh, a journalist condemned to death in Afghanistan on a charge of blasphemy after he circulated an article he found on the internet. We are opposed to the death penalty in all cases and believe that freedom of expression is one of the cornerstones of a democratic society. We have raised the case as members of the EU and with the UN, and we support strongly the UN Special Representative's call for a review of the case.

posted by David Miliband on 31 Jan 08 with 5 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Serbia not just Kosovo

The future of the Western Balkans is often described in shorthand as a question of Kosovo.  And Kosovo, and the political aspirations of its majority community, are clearly a central issue for the EU.  But the point about the western Balkans is that the future of the countries of ex Yugoslavia need to be seen together and not separate.  So the issue is not just Kosovo; it is Serbia too.

I owe my EU Ministerial Colleagues from close to the region - notably Greece, Romania Hungary - for the emphasis they have put on dealing not just with Kosovo but with Serbia.  They emphasised in July last year the need for a Troika mission to go the extra mile to try to find common ground between the two sides, and they have emphasised since the December 10th deadline for the close of the Troika mission the ened to extend a hand of friendship, and more than friendship, to Serbia.  That is what the EU did on Monday, with the Invitation to an Interim Political Agreement - closer ties as a staging post to eventual membership [http://www.eu2008.si/en/News_and_Documents/Council_Conclusions/January/0128GAERC5.pdf].

The president of Serbia, Foreign  Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have set out how the elections on Sunday amount to a referendum on the way Serbia is to engage with the EU - and whether it is to accept the hand that has been extended.  We await the results with interest.

posted by David Miliband on 31 Jan 08 with 2 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Kenya - Key Role for the AU

The increasingly alarming reports of brutality and killing on ethnic lines are rightly getting a lot of coverage.  Richard Dowden explained well on the Today programme on Wednesday why comparisons with Rwanda are dangerous [http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today ] .  But the situation does not have to be a Rwanda for the countries of the region and the world to become concerned.  Stories of Kalenjin and Kikuyu militias roaming rural Kenya in search of reprisals are stomach-churning.

There has been remarkable unanimity around the world about how Kenya can save itself from disaster: strong political leadership that recognises the need for control of militias, the need for credible investigation of allegations of electoral fraud, and the need for compromise about political power, in the short term while constitutional repair is undertaken, and in the medium term when the electorate have a further opportunity to express their views.  Mark Malloch Brown met the key protagonists on Monday to give support to Kofi Annan's African Union mission.  This is now the difference between the success of politics and its rejection.  The AU meeting in Addis Abbaba provides the regional opportunity for pressure and engagement. But the Security Council of the UN is on standby as the world waits to see whether the country can be pulled back from the brink.

 

 

 

posted by David Miliband on 31 Jan 08 with 1 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Davos fact of the day

17 per cent of Davos participants are women; the same figure as the last two years.  Maybe not quite as inclusive an event as I wrote yesterday......

posted by David Miliband on 26 Jan 08 with 6 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Road to Davos

OK.  Discussions of climate change after long airplane journeys in overheated rooms, and

debates on world poverty over four course dinners, can seem hypocritical, but I think Davos

can do some good.  It can educate and inform but also produce dialogue.  After my 15

bilateral meetings I will need to stick my head in the snow, but Davos is good not bad, more

rather than less inclusive than before, and more directed to action and not just words. 

Test us.

posted by David Miliband on 25 Jan 08 with 2 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Third UN Resolution on Iranian Nuclear programme

I agreed with foreign minister colleagues from France, Germany, Russia, China and the USA in

Berlin on Tuesday the contents of a third UN Security Council resolution on Iran's nuclear

programme.  The resolution will now be discussed in New York. Agreement shows the unanimity

of concern about the nuclear programme, but also embodies the two track commitment that has

been at the heart of the approach to Iran - to encourage engagement with the wider world on

the basis of clear offers of economic, technical and political cooperation, and on the other

hand to be clear that the drive to nuclear enrichment will produce costs from the

international community.

The US Secretary of State has said in Davos that the USA does not seek a "permanent enemy"

in Iran despite 29 years when relations have been in deep freeze.  She has said she will

meet "any time, any where" to discuss any issue.  So the ball is in Iran's court.

posted by David Miliband on 25 Jan 08 with 1 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Human Rights: Mainstream not Extreme

The new policy priorities of the FCO (tackling terrorism and weapons of mass destruction,

reducing and preventing conflict, promoting low carbon economic growth, building up

effective international institutions) have at their heart a view of human dignity and human

rights around the world. These rights are universal not particular.

This is a good year to think about how human rights speak to our international concerns and

can drive foreign policy and foreign policy priorities.  On Monday I signed Amnesty

International's book marking the 60th anniversary of the UN Declaration on Human Rights

(signed in London in 1948). http://www.un.org/Overview/rights.html  The UK's major human

rights charites and campaigning organisations including Amnesty are determined to use the

60th anniversary, as they did the 50th, to raise the profile of individual human rights

cases as well as the profile of human rights in foreign policy.  Notwithstanding the

difficult issues involved this must be a good thing.  But the difficulty as I discovered on

meeting them on Monday is not enunciating support for human rights, it is how to advance

them in countries where rights are being abused.

I will be addressing the issues raised by the demand and need for advance of democratic

values in the Aung San Suu Kyi lecture next month.  As the statement I have agreed with

Bernard Kouchner and Condoleeza Rice about Burma shows, it is the particular that

illuminates the general.

posted by David Miliband on 25 Jan 08 with 7 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Canada in Afghanistan

Canada is playing a vital - and costly in terms of human life - role in Afghanistan.  The

publication of the Manley Report http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/obj/013003/f2/013003-1000-e.pdf

on the future role of the Canadian forces in the country after 2009 is an important contribution to the

international debate about Afghanistan, as well as a vital issue for Canadians.  The Canadian government

and opposition have said they are digesting the report and will be debating it in Parliament

in the period ahead.  But there are important messages for the international community in

the report.

The report talks of "measurable, even significant improvement" in living conditions in the

country.  It also talks about the need for a joined up international presence; about the

need to clean up government; about the role of neighbouring countries.  So it is of a piece

with the assessment set out by Gordon Brown in December.

http://www.pm.gov.uk/output/Page14050.asp  And it chimes with some of the messages from the

impressive series of BBC Today programme reports from Afghanistan over the last couple of

weeks. http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/reports/international/afghanistan_20080122.shtml

posted by David Miliband on 25 Jan 08 with 1 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Giscard strikes back

On the day that the House of Commons debates the second reading of the Bill to put into law the Lisbon Treaty the following quotation from former French President, and former President of the drafting Convention of the now abandoned European Constitution, Giscard d'Estaing, speaks for itself.

Remember Giscard has been quoted repeatedly by those saying that the new Reform Treaty is the same as the old Constitution ad nauseum. Now he says the following about the Treaty (16th January 2008): "[It] represents a reversal of political European ambition...The usual path for Treaty [ratification] is parliamentary. The request for a referendum is not justified, as this is a different text [from the Constitutional Treaty], not in its improvements but in its ambition."

posted by David Miliband on 21 Jan 08 with 11 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Trade Union Rights in Belarus

The TUC are drawing attention to violations of the rights of trade unionists around the world and have written to me about the situation in Belarus, where the police raided the Belarus TUC in December. An ILO inquiry found that basic liberties were being infringed and in November 2007 EY members co-authored a resolution on Belarus in the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly, raising concerns about the failure to co-operate with UN human rights mechanisms, the detention and arrest of activists and interference with local elections. The FCO has funded projects on the ground to help independent NGOs and the media. We will continue to make representations on this issue, and others.

posted by David Miliband on 20 Jan 08 with 2 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Liberal Interventionism

"Devoir d'ingerence" - or the obligation to intervene

Most people discuss 'liberal interventionism' - the idea that it is right to defend universal values up to and including by breaching established notions of national sovereignty that have been the basis of balance of power in foreign policy since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 - by reference to Tony Blair's speech in Chicago in 1999, in which he set out his 'doctrine of international community'. In fact the debate goes back further, not least to the book by my colleague the French Foreign minister Bernard Kouchner who wrote a book of the above title in 1987.  In my speech yesterday to the Fabian Society I tried to set out why the defence of universal values rightly stood alongside the drive to combat collective insecurity as the heart of foreign policy today. The determination to go beyond the old foundation of foreign policy, that what goes on within a nation state is only the responsibility and concern of that state, does not decide how the responsibility to protect, or to intervene, is fulfilled. But it does move policy onto the right question - how to make a difference not whether to do so.

Civilian Surge

I was told a striking story by a journalist last week. He was in Africa, driving through the countryside, when he stopped as he came across four young boys in Chelsea shirts. It was the day Jose Mourinho was sacked as the manager of Chelsea. All the boys knew about the change. But when he asked them who ran their country they did not know.Around the world the power of new technology, of example, of education, to provide for the exchange of information and ideals is creating what I call a 'civilian surge'. You see it in Kenya and Pakistan in the demand for credible democracy. You see it in Iran which has the most active blogging community in the world. (I don't think demand for a referendum on the Reform Treaty in Britain is an example - no petition or campaign on this has taken off).  The idea of civilian surge obviously mirrors that of military 'surge'. I got the idea in Iraq talking to General David Petraeus when he was talking about the 'awakening' in Anbar province in revolt against Al Qaeda. It obviously raises hard questions for politics around the world, and for foreign policy. But it is a huge new resource - see below.

Civilian surge brings hope for change

There was a remarkable story in the Times yesterday ('Blogger backlash prompts inquiry into officials who 'murdered' man). A mobile phone which was being used to record violence against a man in China became the trigger for the man with the mobile to be attacked and killed. "Scores of Chinese bloggers voiced their opposition" says the piece and prompted changes in the local government bureau.

posted by David Miliband on 20 Jan 08 with 4 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Europe Makes a Difference to People's Lives - Shock

We hear a lot about the market making power of the EU, and next Monday the Prime Minister will host a joint Foreign Office/Business for New Europe conference on how Britain can continue to lead reform to build a more dynamic European economy of which Britain is a leading part.  But the following BBC story will bring a smile to the Prime Minister as he prepares for the conference.

Apple has announced that it will cut the price it charges for music downloads in the UK from its iTunes music store within the next six months. The cut will bring the UK into line with the charges in the rest of Europe. Apple currently charges 79 pence per download in the UK, compared with 99 euro cents (74p) in the rest of Europe. European Union regulators began investigating iTunes last year after the consumer group Which? complained about its pricing policies. Which? originally lodged its complaint with the EU in 2004. Apple is now taking action against record labels that charge more to distribute music in the UK than in the rest of Europe. "Apple will reconsider its continuing relationship in the UK with any record label that does not lower its wholesale prices in the UK to the pan-European level within six months," the company said in a statement.

EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes welcomed the move, saying that it would "allow consumers to benefit from a truly single market for music downloads". A Commission spokesman said the settlement had been the result of direct talks between Ms Kroes and Apple boss Steve Jobs. The EU was investigating whether the iTunes store violated its competition rules because each country had its own store and consumers were only allowed to download music if they have a credit card from a bank registered in that country. Apple said it could not have a single European iTunes store because of copyright problems, and contractual restrictions put in place by record labels. "We hope other internet companies, including online music companies, will follow Apple's lead and match UK prices to prices in continental Europe," said Which? lawyer Chris Warner. According to the Commission, "prices for iTunes downloads in the UK are currently nearly 10% more expensive than downloads in the euro zone". "Following iTunes' announcement, UK consumers will soon pay the same for music downloads from iTunes as customers from euro-zone countries," it added.

posted by David Miliband on 11 Jan 08 with 21 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Does everyone really hate diplomats?

I was surprised to be asked when I arrived at the Foreign Office whether "everyone hates diplomats".  It was depressing because it suggested a lack of confidence - as well as being a bit out of touch.  I don't think 'people' do hate diplomats.  "Diplomatic" can be a polite term for weasly, but actually the vast bulk of people I think have a sense of our diplomats as high quality but rather removed and forbidding.  (Our Ambassadors do a lot of media work in the country to which they are posted, and probably have a slightly different image as a result).  Part of the refresh of Foreign Office strategy has been designed to ensure that we give proper and clear explanation of what the FCO does - that's important for the organisation itself but also for people's view of the organisation.

The 261 posts that we have around the world are an infrastructure for the whole of British Government to advance our goals and values.  The consular and trade services are a vital public service for citizens and businesses.  And the foreign policy priorities we pursue define key issues in our foreign relations. From April there will be four of these priorities (replacing the combination of ten policy and service priorities until now - no organisation can have ten priorities).  We will focus our foreign policy work on counter terrorism and the risk of nuclear proliferation; preventing and reducing conflict; promoting low carbon/high growth economic development; and building up the effectiveness of international institutions, especially the EU and UN.

In the wake of this clarification, there will be personnel moves too - shifting the Foreign Office finally and decisively from the inheritance of the cold war and aligning ourselves with the challenges of the 21st century.  I said a bit more about this in an article in the Sunday Times on the 6th January.

We don't have a key performance indicator of people loving diplomats - but they deserve respect and they will get it if they explain themselves properly.

posted by David Miliband on 08 Jan 08 with 23 Comments (view/add) | Permalink

Andrew Glyn

I returned to my Oxford College on Friday for the first time in a good number of years for the funeral of economics tutor Andrew Glyn, who died after a sudden illness at the young age of 63 on 22 December. (Andrew Glyn and I edited a book of essays on the costs of inequality - Paying for Inequality - in 1994).  As Phillipe van Parijs pointed out in his eulogy, Andrew defied stereotypes: an Etonian who did not think he was born to rule, an economist who loved jazz more than equations, an undogmatic member of Militant Tendency, an academic who did not care whether he was a Professor (or a Doctor) but did care about his students.  Andrew was passionate in his sniffiness about anything fusty (like an Oxford college) and sanguine about teaching basic economics for the ninth time, but he was passionate about teaching his students: "you must, must, must get this nailed down" he wrote (I think about IS/LM analysis) on one of my essays.  Professor Stephen Nickell described him as "a force for good" which is an impressive epitaph for anyone.  Andrew hated inequality and obscurantism, and he will be much missed by his family and many friends and colleagues, among whom I am happy to number myself.

posted by David Miliband on 07 Jan 08 with 1 Comments (view/add) | Permalink