I returned to my Oxford College on Friday for the first time in a good number of years for the funeral of economics tutor Andrew Glyn, who died after a sudden illness at the young age of 63 on 22 December. (Andrew Glyn and I edited a book of essays on the costs of inequality - Paying for Inequality - in 1994). As Phillipe van Parijs pointed out in his eulogy, Andrew defied stereotypes: an Etonian who did not think he was born to rule, an economist who loved jazz more than equations, an undogmatic member of Militant Tendency, an academic who did not care whether he was a Professor (or a Doctor) but did care about his students. Andrew was passionate in his sniffiness about anything fusty (like an Oxford college) and sanguine about teaching basic economics for the ninth time, but he was passionate about teaching his students: "you must, must, must get this nailed down" he wrote (I think about IS/LM analysis) on one of my essays. Professor Stephen Nickell described him as "a force for good" which is an impressive epitaph for anyone. Andrew hated inequality and obscurantism, and he will be much missed by his family and many friends and colleagues, among whom I am happy to number myself.
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David Miliband
on 07 Jan 08
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The Dogodogo centre for street children in Dar es Salaam is an inspiring story of how Tanzanian street children find refuge then love and fellowship (www.dogodogocentre.org). The children - or 8 of them - have written up their stories in Dogodogo: Tanzanian street children tell their stories (funded by unicef, email dogodogo@bol.co.tz). Royalties go to the centre. The aim is to find schools to twin with in the UK and elsewhere). I hope it strikes a chord for the new year.
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David Miliband
on 03 Jan 08
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Five good things that happened in 2007
1. Reduction in violence in Iraq creating the opportunity for political progress.
2. Agreement for an AU/UN force in Darfur, now being deployed (but needs greater momentum).
3. EU March Council steps up to lead fight against climate change.
4. Military rebuff to predicted Taleban offensive in Afghanistan.
5. 19 multi-party elections in Africa including sucessful elections in Sierra Leone
Five things we need to happen in 2008
In addition to follow through on 2007 progress...
1. Fair and lasting resolution in Kosovo.
2. Iran to work with international community against nuclear proliferation.
3. Substantive and tangible progress towards a two state solution in the Middle East.
4. Transition to democracy in Pakistan.
5. A reversal of the cycle of suffering in Zimbabwe.
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David Miliband
on 31 Dec 07
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The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a shocking blow. First, to
her family, to whom the Prime Minister has extended sincerest condolences.
Second, to her supporters in the Pakistan People's Party and beyond, who saw in
her the chance of progress in Pakistan. Third, to the fragile, troubled,
personalised Pakistani political system which depends for the strength it does
possess on the fortitude of its leaders. Fourth, to many friends and supporters
of Mrs Bhutto in Britain, where she had spent much time, and to the diaspora
Pakistani community in the UK, which has so many ties of family, heritage and
business back to Pakistan and will fear for the worst. Fifth, to friends of
Pakistan in the international community, including the UK, who saw in what Mrs
Bhutto represented an important contribution to Pakistan's future. And sixth,
to decent people everywhere who will feel revulsion at the political violence
that has claimed Mrs Bhutto's life and that of some twenty others today.
The one person who might not have been shocked is Mrs Bhutto.
Her family has known the violence that has marked Pakistani politics since
independence. And she spoke openly about the threats against her return to her
home. I met her on one occasion recently and had spoken to her several times on
the phone. (I had been part of a small retinue for the then Leader of the
Opposition Tony Blair who went to meet her at the Dorchester Hotel in 1996. She
sat at the end of a room on a couch and offered a commanding tour d'horizon of
the post cold war world, animated by the idea that the collapse of communism,
obviously a good thing, might have taken the brakes off market societies, with
dangerous consequences). She was very concerned about the security of herself
and her campaign supporters, but said she felt impelled to return to Pakistan by
the state of the country. After the bombing of her campaign rally on her return
in October, she said that the campaign would be taking extra precautions. A
couple of weeks ago, her focus was almost exclusively on the organisation of the
election campaign, and the details of election practice and observation that
would be key to the result. There was in retrospect and even perhaps at the
time an eery calm about the way she expressed thanks for the interest of the
international community, and its commitment to Pakistan's system of government
as opposed to just one individual.
Mrs Bhutto promised 'moderation and modernisation' for
Pakistan. The debate has no doubt started about what and whether she would have
delivered, informed by the competing claims about her periods in office in the
1990s. But her assassination lays bare the responsibilities of the politicians,
community and faith leaders, businesspeople and military chiefs who will now be
key to Pakistan's future. They need to build a political system that can
sustain itself, a social deal that tackles inequalities of opportunity (less
than 2 per cent of national income is currently spent on education), and a
structure of governance that tackles the long hangover of the days before
independence (and before that) in the tribal areas. As for countries like
Britain, with our multiple networks of politics and culture and business, we
need to continue to engage to back strong systems not just strong people.
In the meantime, we mourn with those close to Mrs Bhutto on
their loss. All friends of Pakistan will rue this day.
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David Miliband
on 28 Dec 07
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Baghdad. A day that started on Saturday night at Luton airport and went via Basra has ended at Saddam Hussein's aunt's guesthouse, which is now the British Embassy, in the international compound in Baghdad. The architecture is grandiose, the Christmas decorations somewhat out of place. But the sense of a nation in the balance profound.
On the one hand the security is abnormal. But the political dilemmas we would recognise: reconciling different views, sharing out resources, recognising past injuries. The parade in Basra by proud members of the Iraqi Security Force following the ceremony to formally ratify the transfer of security responsibility to Iraqi Forces, showed the window of opportunity that now exists. Improved security, coffers swelled by high oil prices, a provincial government that has spent its budget in full for the first time, and a remarkable political declaration on 4 December by around 20 leaders of Basra's different political factions, from Communists to Shias, shows what is possible.
Over 170 British soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq, many of them in Basra. Words cannot heal the grief and suffering of their families. It is impossible to talk about 'worthwhile' loss of life but equally it is wrong I think to talk about 'defeat' or about failure to match American resolve and can-do. Make up your own mind from the following exchange with Sky's Adam Boulton programme .
There is the chance in Basra now for politics to come into its own. We will get a sense of progress if next time the security has improved to allow me to have a look for myself.
'Second Surge'?
The story of President Bush's surge is at the heart of Iraqi explanations of the improved security situation - but the surge is about more than increased numbers of foreign forces. It has been combined with new political outreach and a major shift in Sunni opinion. So the 'second surge' will not come from outside Iraq but from inside - from the c 150 000 members of the Iraqi army recruited in the last year and the
c 70 000 volunteers making up the 'home guard' of 'concerned local citizens'. The international community can support, but the Iraqis need to lead.
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David Miliband
on 17 Dec 07
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Congratulations to Hilary Benn and his team on their role in a climate deal at Bali. The Foreign & Commonwealth Office representative on the ground reported through the night on real negotiations: the scrambling of some traditional alliances, the important role of the new Rudd government in Australia. I think the commitment to a global deal in two years, industrialised countries minus the US taking 25-40 per cent cuts, and a landmark deal on forestry are better than expected.
Universal Language
After my talks with the Chinese Foreign Minister, who conducted the discussion in flawless English, I asked for the figures on Chinese take up of English. They are staggering. 60,000 Chinese students in the UK and 200 million Chinese learning English.
British Council in Russia
Many people are looking forward to the Russian Masterpieces exhibition coming to London next year. Rightly. But what on earth can the Russians think will be achieved by forcing the closure of British Council offices outside Moscow? It is illegal (against the 1963 Vienna agreement), hurts Russians, and damages Russia's image abroad. There is even a debate about whether the Russian measures are MORE restrictive than those against the British Council in Burma and Iran. I hope the government will think again before January 1st.
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David Miliband
on 15 Dec 07
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Readers may be interested to hear of the Burmese regime's aspirations for 2008, as expressed in their Christmas card to the diplomatic corps in Rangoon:
"WE MUST CONSTANTLY BE STRIVING TO KEEP NATIONALIST FERVOUR EVER ALIVE AND DYNAMIC TO OPPOSE COLONIALISTS AND NEO-COLONIALISTS AND THEIR MINIONS AND LACKEYS".
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David Miliband
on 14 Dec 07
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I made it to Lisbon and have got a pen to prove it
I am not one for conspiracy theories but as a 'routine' half hour delay stretched to one hour, and then the pilot said we would have to wait another half an hour, I began to question my faith in the benign force of human nature. The 7.30am BA flight to Lisbon yesterday morning was, I suppose, just another flight, but with an hour and a half to spare before the start of the Lisbon Treaty ratification ceremony, I couldn't really afford much of a delay. Apparently the 'push back' procedure had been mis-timed so we missed our take off slot...I think that 'dog ate my homework' excuse would have stretched credulity with the other 26 at the ceremony.
Fortunately crossed fingers and toes got me there with 15 minutes to spare. And the Jeronimos monastery scene in 1985 of Portugal's accession to the EU, was a remarkable, setting, complete with simultaneous translation booths high in the gods...how they must have smiled.
But signature of the Treaty is only the start of the ratification process. This one will run and run next year.
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David Miliband
on 14 Dec 07
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Thanks to Mike Gapes MP, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, for drawing my attention to a Bertelsmann poll saying 86 per cent of Europeans want the EU to focus on playing a greater role in international affairs, ie focussing on where it can really add value in tackling new threats to security and prosperity. I said to the Committee yesterday that the global/international perspective beyond the EU's borders is like a second wing of the EU aeroplane. Within Europe's borders there is continued work but without an effective response to variegated threats beyond them the plane won't fly.
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David Miliband
on 13 Dec 07
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Hasn’t the Middle East got enough problems without NATO getting involved?
That was the question one diplomat asked me before the ‘Mediterranean Dialogue’ at NATO headquarters yesterday involving all NATO foreign ministers and foreign ministers from Israel, Egypt, Tunisia and other key Mediterranean countries. By the end of the lunch discussion the question had been answered in a surprising way – this was a useful exercise. Meeting for the first time in three years, it quickly became evident that a freeze in the middle east peace process makes action between NATO and the middle east countries very difficult; but the process having reopened at Annapolis, there is potential to make a difference.
NATO was founded to provide hard military guarantees to its members. Now it needs to keep that going but in a circumstance where territorial integrity in western Europe is far less the issue than instability on our borders. The Middle East is key. So it was interesting to hear Arab delegations talking about how Nato can provide neutral ground and expertise for dialogue but also for engagement – for example in police training. Everyone knows that the next year is key for progress towards a Palestinian state; why shouldn't NATO add some value to the process?
EU-Africa summit and Zimbabwe
I am glad there is a debate about whether we were right to refuse to attend the EU-Africa summit because of the participation of Robert Mugabe, the president of Zimbabwe. Of course attendance allows one to speak one’s mind; but attendance also confers legitimacy – and in the context of economic, political and social abuse of power in Zimbabwe the cost of that legitimacy, in of all things a discussion of human rights and good governance, outweighs the potential gains.
Douglas Alexander and I set out in an article (http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/EU-Africa%20article%20by%20Minister%20Milliband.doc) the UK case for a reinvigorated EU-Africa relationship. This is a relationship that matters, not least because the rest of the world is getting interested in Africa as an investor and partner. That is why we wanted the summit to go ahead. But the Zimbabwe discussion is a huge elephant in the room – the budget this week had numbers of Zimbabwe dollars going into the "quadrillions", (euphemistically described by the finance ministers as thousands of trillions, or should that be millions of trillions?).
Valerie Amos will do a good job representing the UK – not because she is black but because she represents insight, commitment and common sense. And the debate around Europe shows that the refusal to attend has put the right sort of questions on the agenda.
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David Miliband
on 08 Dec 07
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The headlines in today's newspapers (Friday) about "war" between Serbia and a newly independent Kosovo will have provoked a rude awakening to people who thought that the bloodshed of the 1990s had been concluded. However the comments of Mr Simic are not just utterly irresponsible - they are out of sync with judicious and sensible commitments by colleagues in the Serbian Government to the EU/US/Russia Troika charged with mediating up to 10 December between the parties. Those commitments were to avoid and disavow military conflict.
The enmities in Kosovo go back centuries. But as we saw in the 1990s there are huge dangers in the Western Balkans in believing that the situation is so complex that any action is worse than no action. Complexity cannot be a recipe for indecision. No one seriously believes mediation has failed for lack of time. Since 1999 there has been in UNSCR 1244 a legal and political base for final settlement. 18,000 NATO troops are in Kosovo to keep the peace. They need to stay. They need the backing of a European civilian mission. But they also need a new political framework.
At heart it needs two components. A settlement for Kosovo consistent with the aspirations of its people and the promises already made by the international community. And second, an offer to Serbia (and the wider region) that recognises its economic and social interests in deeper engagement with the EU. The delicacy of the relationship between these two components is the basis for international engagement to create a managed process. NATO confirms its commitment today. The Troika finishes its work on Monday, the same day that the EU Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels. The UN Secretary General has said the status quo is unsustainable.
Over the next weeks and months standing aside won't be an option.
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David Miliband
on 07 Dec 07
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I found it as frustrating as everyone (right through to US CBS Anchor Katie Couric) else that a dedicated British teacher working in Sudan should end up arrested over the naming of a teddy bear. But the outlandish suggestions flying around for how we should have responded - kick out the Sudanese Ambassador, cut off aid - suggest that Mrs Gibbons' welfare was not in fact top priority.
Consular cases go wrong when they become political footballs. Mrs Gibbons is on her way home as I write because this one didn't. There are very big foreign policy issues on which we are engaging with the Government of Sudan - notably over Darfur and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. We will be pursuing them on the foreign policy track where they belong.
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David Miliband
on 04 Dec 07
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The Bali Climate Conference starting on Monday (Ministerial segment the week after) will bring together over 15000 delegates (with a massive carbon footprint). But in the end only a global agreement can establish the rules of the game for a shift to low carbon ways of living and working. So the conference matters – and hopefully it will set a two year deadline for the agreement on all aspects of a deal (maximum two years because beyond that it is hard to see a new agreement being ratified in Parliaments around the world in time to replace the Kyoto commitments which run out in December 2012). But the key to progress may not be negotiation – it may be in the pressure on the negotiators. That is why the Prince of Wales’ initiative 15 years ago to create a campaigning group on business and the environment is important (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92ffb9d2-9ee6-11dc-b4e4-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1) and why the communiqué signed by 150 businesses (www.balicommunique.com < http://www.balicommunique.com/ > ) is so welcome. There is so much scaremongering about the environmental challenge that when businesses stand up and say there is money to be made out of a shift to low carbon production I hope people stand up and take notice. This is also the important message of this week’s CBI report (www.cbi.org.uk/climatereport)
Business does strategy better than politics – and it hedges for uncertainty better than politics. Where business is now pointing on climate global politics needs to go.
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David Miliband
on 02 Dec 07
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Many people actually, and development is much more difficult than cancelling debt, but there was an amazing statistic released on Thursday about African death rates from measles being cut in six years after 2000 by 90%. The facts are simple (WHO source): nearly 400 000 deaths in 2000 compared to 36 000 in 2006. This was a target that was not just met but met early. The WHO call it "spectacular". It is a major contributor in substance but also in symbolism to the Millenium Development Goals. A clear vaccination programme (Measles Initiative worth nearly $500 million in nearly 50 countries) with massive public and private funding has made the difference. There has been a quiet revolution in the approach to overseas development in Britain in the last ten years with all parties formally committed to big increases in expenditure – but I never quite know about how the public feel. Emergency appeals get an amazing response – but do people feel there is a lasting difference. The measles example shows that we should be confident in making the argument that aid and intervention can and do work
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David Miliband
on 02 Dec 07
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I was asked several times in the House of Commons today (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmhansrd/cm071128/debtext/71128-0004.htm) whether I was confident that a deal could be done to secure Middle East peace. The answer is of course that it would be foolish to be confident given the numerous obstacles in the path of a comprehensive deal, and the number of spoilers for the process. That is why, contrary to what Yitzhak Rabin said in 1993 ( http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Peace+Process/1993/Remarks+by+PM+Yitzhak+Rabin+at+Signing+of+DOP+-+13.htm), today is a time of apprehension tinged with hope, rather than vice versa.
Several people have pointed out that a huge burden falls to the US government. That is true - notwithstanding the fact that in the end the leadership and compromise is going to have to come from Israelis and Palestinians. But I noticed how at the end of the conference representatives of all countries were struck by Condoleeza Rice's explanation of how her own childhood shaped her sense of the yearning of the two parties. She explained that she lost a dear school friend in the Birmingham, Alabama church bombing of 1963, and grew up at a time when legalised division between white and black was a matter of everyday life. One delegate said: now I reckon she does get it.
So caution is in order, but so is engagement.
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David Miliband
on 29 Nov 07
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